Year In Review: Coulda Been Worse

Because, what the hell, everyone else is doing it.

Wars: 1 down, 1 to go, 1 pending
The United States has finally gotten out of Iraq having long ago forgotten why we invaded them in the first place (WMDs, remember?). Iraq is now free to devolve back into the sectarian civil war they have indulged in for decades before occupation. The Afghanistan War continues even though there is no real goal and no real plan.
Will Israel start things by bombing Iran's nuclear facilities and then pass it on to the US troops to do all the actual dying? Will Ahmadinejad get bored with the waiting and start a war by blocking the Strait of Hormuz? Or will a freshly elected Mittster invade to get some love from Republican neo-cons?

Terrorism: OBL is DOA
Bin Laden was killed this year, although having to wait through ten years of failure to get there takes some of the fizz out of the champagne.

Arab Winter
The democracy movement in Egypt has been captured by a military dictatorship that is more brutal than the Mubarak government was. Syria's president is engaged in genocide against Syrians. Tunisia seems to be doing okay; we'll see about Libya.

Unemployment: Inching towards full employment

It used to be that full employment meant that everybody had a job. Then it was decided that having a reservoir of people desperate for work was a good thing (for businesses) so "full employment" was defined as an unemployment rate of 3%.  In recent years that number has been inching up. The current definition of "full employment" (NAIRU) is nine million people (6%) without work.

Republican Politics

The Republican presidential field is the biggest group of stooges in politics since Larry, Moe, and Shemp filmed a two-reeler titled Three Dark Horses.

Marriage
If it weren't for gays, nobody would be getting married nowadays, meaning most Family Values Republicans are really anti-marriage.

Social Equality: a bad year
The Great Disenfranchisement continues as Republicans set up barriers to prevent the poor, minorities, students, and the elderly from voting. American citizens of Hispanic decent are being deported. A new law allows confinement without trial of American citizens.

It Coulda Been Worse

Republicans could control all levels of government. As it is, they control Congress, the Supreme Court, the Federal Reserve, and the military.

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Merchants of War

No country in the world sells more weapons of war than the United States. In fact, the US manufactures and sells more military hardware to the developing world than every other country in the world combined.

Click image.

Tanks and planes are disposable commodities (the goal being to blow up the other guy's shit), the biggest profits come if you can supply both sides of a conflict.

The US is selling $11 billion worth of jets to wanna-be petty Shi'ite dictator Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq. The US is also selling $29 billion worth of new jets to the petty Sunni monarchs of Saudi Arabia. Iraq is going to want to play with its new toys. The Saudis are going to want to protect their Sunni brothers in Iraq. The chances the two countries are going to start shooting down each others planes are high. You know what that means?


Profits, Baby!!!

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Who Will Win the Iowa Caucus?

As a rule, the Iowa Caucus is predictive of nothing. Winning means little, losing means less. The most important thing about the caucus is that it weeds out the wastrel candidates who devote too many resources to Iowa and can't compete in the rest of the country.

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Virginia GOP Ballot

Republicans have given me an early Christmas present. Only Mitt and Ron Paul qualified for the ballot in Virginia. Most states pretty much allows anyone with a pulse on the ballot (New Hampshire has 33 Republicans on their presidential primary ballot). Virginia is more strict, requiring 10,000 signatures with names from all 13 congressional districts to qualify.

Ten thousand is not an impossible number. I've seen all volunteer efforts gather twice that number in two months. If you are lazy just $50,000 will hire paid troops to gather the signatures.

Conservatives are bouncing between morning the absence of Gingrich and Perry, bemoaning a choice restricted to a Mormon Communist and a neo-Nazi, and weaving conspiracy theories that Romney supporters rigged the system. Reading the comments on RedState are very entertaining.

Gingrich and Perry tried but failed to qualify. All the other Republicans that have been showing up at all those debated didn't even try. Gingrich is whining about how unfair it is while Perry is threatening to sue. It is beyond me how someone thinks they can run an entire country when they can't even negotiate that nation's election rules.

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Why They Run: Republicans for President

There are some back stories that explain the motivation of the Republican presidential candidates.

Mitt Is Still Proving Himself to Daddy

The most telling thing about Mitt Romney is that he has a campaign poster for his father, George, on his campaign bus. Mitt has been running for office for two decades and mostly a failure at it. His father forced the 45 year-old Mitt to run for Senate in 1994, going so far as to move in with his son to hector him. Mitt's inability to find a permanent policy platform shows he has no political motivation to run. His father long ago told Mitt that he wasn't worth shit unless he was President and poor Mitt is still trying to please Daddy.

Paul the Anarchist

Ron Paul has said that the Civil War was wrong because the government had no right to end slavery, although he would not have been against people buying slaves to free them. He has opposed the Civil Rights Act because he believes people should have the right to indulge their race hatred without interference. These opinions has made Paul a hero to neo-Nazis who don't want anarchy so much as an oppressive dictatorship.

Book Tour Campaigns
Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich independently came up with the same brilliant plan to con people into donating money to pay for their book tours by pretending to run for President. Neither expected nor wanted to be declared front runner but it has helped book sales.

Professional Nags
Bachmann and Santorum are just perpetual scolds who want a wider audience for their reproval. 

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Taxing the Rich

Republicans contend that lowering taxes on the rich will create jobs. This chart (from Centers for American Progress) shows job growth (Y-axis) related to the tax rate. Using 60 years of actual data it show that lower taxes tend to depress employment while higher taxes tend to encourage jobs creations.

The reason for this is not simple. Lower top tax rates allows wealth to concentrate unhealthily, creating a feeble economy. Also, the Republican argument against welfare works for the wealthy as well. When oligarchs don't have to work for their riches they tend towards idleness. Higher taxes act as an incentive for the wealthy to work for a vibrant economy so they can pay their taxes and still be stinking rich.

The lie that lower taxes are good for the country dates back to the Laffer Curve. Arthur Laffer started with the notion that a 0% tax rate will raise no taxes and a 100% tax rate won't either since people won't work for nothing. He connected those two data points with the simplest possible Bell Curve, slapped his name on it, and watched Ronald Reagan build an entire religion upon it.

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The Mayan Calendar

It turns out I suddenly find myself needing to know the plural of apocalypse. ~ Buffy the Vampire Slayer

The countdown clock begins today. In just 366 days (leap year, you know) the world is coming to an end.

The Mayans were calendar nuts. They had a solar calender (Haab) that consisted of 18 months that were twenty days long plus a five day festival of human sacrifice to make up the difference. They had a lunar calendar (Tzolkin) that had twenty months with 13 days each that matched the human gestation cycle.

Those two calendars were merged into a 52 year cycle that was used for divination. The end of each 52 year cycle was was a time of renewal when household utensils were destroyed and fires extinguished.

Then there is the famous Long Count Calendar. The basic Long Count Calendar Year is 5,125 years duration. Twenty of those achieve a 26,000 year epoch marked by the full precession of the winter solstice alignment with the galactic center. According to the Mayans there are five such epochs totally some 130,000 years.

The last Long Count Calendar Year began on August 11, 3114 BCE and is due to end on December 21, 2012. It marks the end of the fifth (and final) epoch when the sun at winter solstice will again align with the center of the Milky Way.

A Side Note: 26,000 years ago was the height of the last Ice Age. Humans had recently driven Neanderthals into extinction.

What exactly is supposed to happen next year depends on your imagination. Such Mayan writings that have been translated suggest climatic upheaval. Add the Mayans to the Christian belief that the world has just got to end any day now (Really, it's just gotta!) and Republican certainty that armageddon is better than four more years of Barack Obama. We have the perfect storm for the End of Days prediction business.

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The Next Not Romney

Newt Gingrich has worn out his four weeks atop the polls by saying truly insane things like he would arrest judges who disagree with him. Yet the thought of Mitt Romney still fills the mouths of Republican rank and file with partially digested vomit. It's time for a new Golden Boy.

Ta-da! It's Ron Paul's turn leading the polls.

It's fun watching the panic from the Tea Partiers as they lurch from one idiot to another searching for a substitute for Nelson Rockefeller Mitt Romney.

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Worst Year Ever: Football Department

You have to be really good to be really bad all year and not get benched.

George Blanda (1962) - 42 Interceptions

Aaron Rodgers has thrown six interception in 13 Green Bay wins. In the young AFL, one out of ever ten passes Blanda attempted was caught by the defense. But the Houston Oilers still managed to finish first with an 11-3 record. Blanda went on to lead the league in interceptions the next three years as well. He retired at the age of 48 and is in the NFL Hall of Fame.

Davey O'Brien (1940) - minus 1.8 yards/rush

Quarterbacks are not noted for their running ability (and, no, Tim Tebow is not a quarterback). Back in the day of leather helmets when concussions were unheard of because nobody was stupid enough to use their heads as a weapon, Davey O'Brien was an outstanding passer. He averaged an unheard of 120 yards passing per game. (Drew Brees throws 336 yards per game). Unfortunately, Davey loved to run the ball too. He led his team in carries in 1940 (100 rushes), losing 180 yards in the effort. I'm sure a lot of those would be recorded as sacks nowadays but still. His team had a 1-10 record and he retired at the end of the season to become an FBI agent. Paid better.

Dave Carr (2002) - 76 sacks

This is a record that belongs to an offensive line that included two rookies. Poor Dave Carr was a rookie himself in 2002. Every seventh time he dropped back to pass he was slammed to the turf. And so his suffering never ended, poor Dave Carr played every second of every game. He also fumbled 23 times because sometimes you just have to scream, "Here, chase the ball instead of me!"

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Yeah, but your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should. ~ Jurassic Park

Maybe the scariest news I've come across in years is that a team of scientists have genetically altered the Avian Flu to make it a highly contagious plague virus.

The H5N1 virus is a bird flu that only extremely rarely makes the species jump to infect humans. When it does make the jump it kills half the people it infects.

The scientists asked the question, "how hard can it be to convert H5N1 into a human specific pathogen."  In the process they also accidentally made it an airborne virus with the potential to kill hundreds of millions of people should it ever be released. Now they need to publish their work to get their Nobel Prize.

The scientists are reassuring. They insist they will keep their killer bug under lock and key. Of course once they publish their techniques any microbiologist with a petri dish and a few ferrets can copy their efforts. They insist that the H5 strain is incapable of producing a pandemic because it hasn't in the past. Of course since they have been playing with the genetics all bets are off. They insist they only did this to encourage research into vaccines for H5N1. Of course, having invented the disease they would be the ones to hire to cure it.

Kind of reminds me of the discredited(?) rumors about AIDS being a weaponized simian virus that escaped the labs.

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Homefront Reinforcements

It was vital to withdraw troops from Iraq by mid-December. With the bowl season upon us and its demands for honor guards and fighter jet flyovers the need for homefront reinforcements was never greater.

The Russian Army already has a cheerleader brigade.

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Operation Wetback V2.0

In the 1950's began a program of going door-to-door in border states arresting everyone suspected of being an illegal alien. Hundreds of thousands of Hispanics workers were rounded up and deported to Mexico during Operation Wetback. There was extensive physical abuse as Hispanics were crowded into concentration camps prior to deportation. One example was the deportation ship Mercurio where 500 detainees were jammed onto a boat built to hold 80. Thousands of America-born citizens of Hispanic decent were caught up in the dragnet and deported as well.

That was then, today we haves Operation Secure Communities. This program works with local police to round up Hispanics so they can be fingerprinted and processed for deportation. Hundreds of thousands of people have been swept up including thousands of American citizens. While, officially, the program is supposed to identify alien felons, the only crime a large percentage have committed is DWL (Driving While Latino).

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Return of Debtors Prisons

Those who made the laws have apparently supposed, that every deficiency of payment is the crime of the debtor. But the truth is, that the creditor always shares the act, and often more than shares the guilt. ~ Samuel Johnson (1758)

The 21st century Gilded Age has seen the return of many long forgotten ills. Governance is again becoming the exclusive domain of the wealthy. The laws against child labor are under attack. And debtors prisons are returning.

Considered a relic of the Victorian Age and Dickensian novels, it has long been illegal to imprison someone because of an inability to pay his debts. Not any more. The tricks are endless:

• Demand a debtor appear in a distant city for a needless deposition and then imprison the debtor for failure to appear (an Order of Capias).
• Obtain a court order for payment of a small debt and then demanding imprisonment until the debt is paid.
• Bill prisoners for room and board and then imprison the poor indefinitely for failure to pay.
• More than 5,000 arrest warrants for debt were issued in 2010 in just nine counties in the United States.

At least in the old days there were separate debtors prisons where poor unfortunates were held together and could care for each other; families were even allowed to stay together. In these modern times, people whose only crime is debt are tossed into the general prison population with hardened thugs and rapists.

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